New Bushite concept: the 'international figleaf force'

Amazing!

This morning I hear on the radio that Secretary Rice is in Beyrouth the express her concern for the Lebanese people. Keeping in mind such small trivial issues like this one http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/20060721_us_sends_israel/ or the USA's opposition to an immediate ceasefire I am sure that the Lebanese people are deeply, deeply touched by her concern.

But even more amazing is the New Grand Idea (or NGI) of the Bush Administration. This NGI revolves around the following concepts:

1) Hezbollah must be disarmed according to the UN resolution 1559.
2) The Lebanese Army would take over the control of south Lebanon.
3) An international force, possibly NATO, would deploy along the Lebanese-Israeli border.
4) Syria and Iran would be firmly told to reign in Hezbollah
5) The captive Israeli soldiers would have to be unconditionally released

Looking at these five points, I cannot decide which is the most idiotic. Let's look at them one by one.

1) Disarming Hezbollah. Well, guess what? Hezbollah does not want to disarm. Not only does it not want to disarm, but there is NOBODY out there who could force it to disarm (see point #2).
2) Send it the Lebanese Army. Yes, that is tehe very same army which Israel has been bombing over the past two weeks, it is the same army which is compsed of about 50% Shia and the same army which promised to fight alongside Hezbollah should Israel invade south Lebanon. Makes you wonder what they are smoking (and inhaling) in the White House nowadays...
3) Send in NATO or some other type of force. Not to monitor peace (UNIFIL has been uselessly there for years already) but to forcibly disarm Hezbollah. Sure, an alliance of, say, Poland, Sri Lanka and Belgium would go in there and do what the 'almight and invinvible Tsahal' (i.e.: the IDF) did not succeed in doing in TWO DECADES of bloody occupation.
4) Pressure Iran and Syria. OF course, these 'axis of evil' countries which are constantly threatened of war, agression and/or sanctions just would *love* to rescue the USA and Israel of their predicament (the IDF's air war is a total failure: http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/06/front2453938.0986111113.html)
5) Release the captured Israeli soliders. In his recent interview, Nasrallah clearly stated that he would not simply let then go without an exchange of prisoners:

Q: Do you still insist on the principle of swapping?

A: Certainly, this is an issue that we cannot tolerate. In fact, if the civilians who were martyred, the displaced who are suffering now the effects of displacement, and the steadfast people know that it is possible for me to extradite or return these two soldiers without closing this file they will accuse me of treason. I will also accuse myself of treason. This is completely out of question. In the first day, I said that if the entire universe comes, it will not be able to take back the two Israeli soldiers except through indirect negotiation and exchange of prisoners.

Some are thinking that maybe the USA ought to intervene directly. Send in a Marine Expeditionary Brigade or something. I am certain that there is nothing, nothing at all which would please Hezbollah more than a US deployment there. This would finally give the possibility for Hezbollah to strike directly at Americans. Alas (for Hezbollah at least) such an option is not realistic either. First, the US army will not try its hands at something the Israelis failed at even though they tried for two decades. Second, the USA knows exactly what such an operation would entail: an immediate and massive attack on US forces in Iraq. We need to remember here that while the Iraqis are usually busy killing each other along sectarian/ethic lines, the Iraqi Parliament unanimously adopted a resolution in suppport of Hezbollah (http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/COL658558.htm). One SUNNI leader even said: "Support Hassan Nasrallah and stand by his side and you will be closer to the angels in heaven".

The US is now fighting the LITTLE guy on the Iraqi block: the Sunni. Should the Shia suddely join the anti-US attacks it would be a disaster of a huge, much more bloody, magnitude (this is why the Brits have already worked out emergency evacuation plans for their forces in Iraq: they know how stupid and deluded Bush & Co. are).

So where does all this leave us?

The clear conclusion is that Israel has already lost the war, none of the objectives it has officially given itself can be achieved (even killing Nasrallah would be not only useless, but counterproductive as he is, as those who need to know in Israel and Washington do know, a moderate. Kissling Shiekh Mussawi taught everybody a good lesson, even if it is one nobody is willing to admit to) and that the ONLY purpose of any Lebanese or international force in south Lebanon will be to provide it with a fig leaf to conceal its total defeat.

This force will enter Lebanon 100% on Hezbollah's terms and will in no way antagonize Hezbollah or even affect its capabilities or actions. In fact, it could be argued that it will serve as some type of shield for Hezbollah not only in the south, but everwhere else (there are two Hezbollah ministers in the currect government). The Israelis will fully understand this, but they will shut up because they need this fig leaf more than anybody else. And, of course, there will be no US troops on tehe ground either.

What will be the next NGI coming up after this one? My bet is that the USA will 'play the Sunni card' and side with its current arch-enemies (and former arch-pals), the Sunni, to try to 'play' then against the percieved (and very real) 'Shia crescent of power' in the Middle East. Back to square one: the situation during the Iran-Iraq war and the USSR-CIA war in Afghanistan.

Will a new, possibly Democratic, administration in the White House, do better? Absolutely not. These policies are not the product of one ape-like cowboy idiot, but the result of the self-worshipping hubris of an entire political elite in Washington. No, there is only one way all this will change: the hard way.