disarming Hezbollah?

Farewell to arms for Hezbollah is unlikely, experts say

PATRICK MARTIN

BEIRUT -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday in Jerusalem that the UN Security Council could reach a deal on a sustainable ceasefire in the Israel-Lebanon conflict "this week." But if Ms. Rice thinks that deal will include a provision to disarm the militant Hezbollah group, she had better think again.

Flush from their apparent ability to survive Israeli attacks, and basking in the adulation of a grateful country, Hezbollah would appear to have little motive to do so.

"There's no way they'll disarm, at least not in the foreseeable future," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a professor at Lebanese American University and author of Hizbullah: Politics and Religion. "No one in Lebanon even uses the term 'disarm,' " she said. "If anything, they talk about 'arms management.' "

In truth, Hezbollah has reportedly discussed arms management as part of a "national dialogue" roundtable that has been taking place among Lebanon's political leaders for the past three months. While no one outside the group has seen the document, Prof. Ghorayeb says Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah sent a 600-page report offering different options for Hezbollah to reduce its arms -- provided certain conditions are met.

"The most important condition is that Lebanon have a viable defence strategy," Prof. Ghorayeb said. "Until there's an alternative to defending this country, they won't disarm," she said. "And they know there won't be one for a long time."

That may be the case, but Israel, with the support of the United States, launched its attack on Hezbollah three weeks ago with the express aim of disabling Hezbollah. Neither Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert nor U.S. President George W. Bush appears interested in settling for anything less. If that can't be achieved on the battlefield, both leaders reason, then it should be dictated by the Security Council.

The Lebanese government of Fouad Siniora is not in a position to force Hezbollah to disarm. Not only are half the soldiers in the Lebanese army Shiites, and probably unwilling to turn against the powerful Shia Hezbollah, no one here wants to risk any kind of conflict; the memory of Lebanon's bloody 15-year civil war is still fresh in people's minds.

Besides, Mr. Nasrallah is seen in this country as the second coming of Gamal Abdel Nasser, the charismatic Egyptian leader who preached Arab nationalism. "There hasn't been anyone like him [Nasrallah] for a long time," said Karim Makdisi, a professor of politics at the American University of Beirut. "People are desperate for leadership," he said, "and Nasrallah, in his calm, rational way, provides it."

"Of course, it helps that his militia has been able to defeat the Israelis," Prof. Makdisi added.

Walid Jumblatt, the powerful leader of Lebanon's Druze, says that many people are supporting Hezbollah simply because it's fighting the Israelis.

Mr. Jumblatt, speaking from his palatial home looking out from the Shouf Mountains in Lebanon's north, was a critic of Hezbollah's July 12 capture of two Israeli soldiers, the event that triggered this conflict. He mocked the group's "excuse" of wanting to bargain for their own prisoners in Israel. Given the devastation to Lebanon that resulted from Israel's retaliation, he said, "these must be the most expensive prisoners in the world."

But even Mr. Jumblatt, part of the so-called March 14 group that questioned Hezbollah's right to continue to bear arms, acknowledges that Hezbollah cannot now be forced to disarm. "Hezbollah is victorious," he said. "The only question is what will they do with this victory? Give it to Lebanon -- a sovereign, independent Lebanon? Or give it to someone else [such as] Syria and Iran?"

Mr. Jumblatt, who once presided over his own powerful militia, hopes Hezbollah will remain committed to a multicultural Lebanon. But, as for disarming them, the best that can be hoped for, he said, is that Hezbollah turn its militia over to the Lebanese army.

Prof. Makdisi, a Protestant Christian, believes Hezbollah is mainly a national movement committed to a Lebanese agenda, not one dictated by Iran or anyone else. "Nasrallah does not want to create some kind of Islamic state," he said. "He has gone out of his way to reassure Christians and Sunni Muslims, that his victory will be a victory for all Lebanese, not just for Hezbollah."

Wouldn't Prof. Makdisi prefer to see Hezbollah disarmed? "Eventually, of course," he said. "I don't care about Hezbollah one way or the other," he added. "But as long as the Arab-Israeli conflict is hot, Hezbollah is a very good card for us to have in our hand. Take it away, and what clout would we have?"

Of course, the UN Security Council meeting this week might mandate an international force to come in and try forcibly to disarm Hezbollah. "I wouldn't advise it," Prof. Makdisi said. "The Americans and French are still recovering from what happened to them when they came in here in 1982."

Patrick Martin, The Globe's Comment editor, has returned to report from the Middle East, where he was the paper's correspondent from 1991 to 1995.

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