Hezbollah Head Didn't Foresee Such a War Well, Golly!

Nasrallah's regret: guilt or sheer genius?
Posted: 2006/08/28
From: Mathaba

Hassan Nasrallah's comments on Sunday portrayed a man admitting miscalculation and regrets abducting two Israeli soldiers in July - a sense of guilt or just another witty political maneuvering?

By Zaher Mahruqi

It seems Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah comments on Sunday portrayed a man admitting miscalculation and regrets abducting two Israeli soldiers in July.

"We did not think, even one percent that the capture (of the two soldiers) would lead to a war at this time and of this level. You ask us, if we had known…that the operation would have led to such a war, would we have done it? I say no, absolutely not," he said. Soon after, Israeli officials seized Nasrallah's comments and utilized as prove that their swift response was the right course of action and had shown the enemies of Israel that it is a dangerous game to "violate" the Jewish state.

The comments sent shock waves through the Arab world which hailed Nasrallah as a hero; people were left wondering why show signs of regret after standing up to such an intimidating military machine. At first glance, these comments which were made in a more down to earth local dialect unlike his war time presentations in which he committedly employed a formal Arabic dialect; Nasrallah's speech appears to be apologetic from a man who is essentially saying that he would never mess with Israeli fire power ever again.

However, this is the same man who was at the height of his composure in the midst of one of the most brutal wars in recent history. Nasrallah is a leader who leads with wits as well as managing the emotions of his people. He knows that Israel has learned a lesson that would make it think hard before attacking Lebanon ever again and at the same time he realizes that though the war has been won, the time for fighting words is over.

Anyone who might have doubted the wits of Nasrallah this should, beyond any reasonable doubt, confirm his genius. The man is at this point, unlike during the war, riding on the physical battle ground victory to elevate Hezbollah's political position within Lebanon. He is effectively communicating to the Lebanese people that, although his group will defend them with its blood when necessary, it is not a reckless group and one which is aware of the suffering caused by its actions.

In other words, what Nasrallah's telling the Lebanese people, despite being a brave group of people, is that we don’t necessarily like wars and its devastating effects are very clear to us. In essence, his message to the Lebanese people is that he feels their pain and is not trigger happy or eager to ignite another conflict; in the future the group's priority will be peace and pursuit of peaceful closure of any disagreements. Embrace us politically but be assured that we don’t strive on wars and just as we served you during war time, we can play a critical role for you during peace times.

To kill any doubt of his resoluteness after pronouncing what appeared to be defeatist comments, he warned the Unifel from any attempt to rid Hezbollah of its weapons or otherwise engage the group in any sort of confrontation. He also reaffirmed victory by mentioning the willingness of Israel to negotiate prisoner exchange, a condition previously rejected by Israel.

On the Israeli seen, though Israel officials might wish to utilize Nasrallah's comments to secure some sort of moral victory, they are unlikely to take that route. The comments have been intentionally made in a time that the people of Israel have conceded defeat, at least in that the war failed to achieve its objectives. Nothing Israeli officials could say at this point to reverse the mood; the wound is too deep by now. At this point there is already a strong movement to install an independent committee to examine the causes for the miserable failure experienced by the Jewish military machine.

It is of no consequence what anyone makes of his comments; he has handled the battle in his own terms and has won according to his own assessment of how he conceived a victorious outcome. Even when his comments appear to his enemy as signs of weakness, Nasrallah's political life is being strengthened by his ingenuously timed maneuvers. It is said that uncompromising men are easily admired by the simple and the unsophisticated in which case Nasrallah would have endeared that portion of the population by choosing a war over returning the two Israeli soldiers, but his admittance of regret is surely a tactical maneuver to reassure and secure the remaining portion of his population, one which is anti-conflict and doesn’t wish for another war anytime soon.
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